A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
