🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still